Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 26.546613 29.393358 32.635413 36.652584 41.572291 47.507508 55.385211
2025-03-09 22.384302 25.960312 30.385422 36.440589 44.827412 56.603070 75.667459
2025-03-16 19.630257 23.502016 28.583215 36.078360 47.563663 66.084855 103.105202
2025-03-23 17.675564 21.664007 27.135894 35.703147 50.007566 76.261304 142.368523
2025-03-30 16.247453 20.288117 26.034367 35.494738 52.548191 88.067429 205.219845
2025-04-06 14.965392 18.937878 24.736352 34.649034 53.628117 97.670014 290.046270
2025-04-13 14.490040 18.672029 25.000154 36.416197 60.351740 126.856572 683.157676
2025-04-20 13.658961 17.784119 24.157571 36.030294 62.385300 145.451757 1622.521831
2025-04-27 13.059543 17.185703 23.700248 36.257793 65.958185 175.225463 37744.091212
2025-05-04 12.563179 16.698354 23.362398 36.641351 70.136125 217.141370 NaN
2025-05-11 12.075757 16.182750 22.914966 36.712607 73.556660 266.596776 NaN
2025-05-18 11.559574 15.582530 22.258634 36.227566 75.185306 312.782556 NaN
2025-05-25 11.154727 15.143455 21.861888 36.281559 78.780739 401.971750 NaN
2025-06-01 10.735249 14.654025 21.331617 35.955643 81.058577 504.971852 NaN
2025-06-08 10.343157 14.186370 20.802092 35.552593 82.977141 642.476568 NaN
2025-06-15 9.986398 13.757291 20.309748 35.166135 84.881929 846.274871 NaN
2025-06-22 9.678878 13.394057 19.912734 34.954406 87.512092 1230.437775 NaN
2025-06-29 9.325564 12.935383 19.301280 34.126500 87.144696 1542.332039 NaN
2025-07-06 9.271414 12.983862 19.668160 35.846924 99.883940 15476.187637 NaN
2025-07-13 9.005134 12.650934 19.260834 35.470365 101.992487 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.814462 12.440711 19.082593 35.691677 107.759986 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.649336 12.267024 18.964620 36.065103 115.005349 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 8.466716 12.053647 18.750444 36.134439 120.609938 NaN NaN